TRACES TRAining the next generation iCE researcherS - DR9 Robust assessment of model error for ice accretion models

TRACES | TRAining the next generation iCE researcherS

Omar Kahol

Robust assessment of the model error for ice accretion models through Bayesian-based methods and experimental data

WP2, WP3

Objective

To introduce a robust procedure for assessing the model error for any model used during the simulation, to calibrate model parameters considering systematically the model error, to combine several models’ predictions to improve the overall prediction capabilities

Expected Results

Assess the calibration procedure by detecting potential inaccuracies of any model
Perform an uncertainty quantification study propagating systematically the posterior distribution of each model’s parameter

Design & Certify Exercise

Design of an electro-thermal Ice Protection System (PWG3)

Bibliography

Cortesi, P.M. Congedo, Forward and backward uncertainty quantification with active subspaces: Application to hypersonic flowsaround a cylinder. Journal of Computational Physics 2019, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcp.2019.109079
F. Sanson, C. Bertorello, J.-M. Bouilly, P.M. Congedo, Breakup prediction under uncertainty : application to upper stage controlled reentries from GTO orbit, Aerospace Science and Technology, Volume 87, April 2019, Pages 340-356, 2019.
F. Fusi, P.M. Congedo, A. Guardone, G. Quaranta, Multifidelity Physics-Based Method for Robust Optimization Ap-plied to a Hovering Rotor Airfoil. AIAA Journal, 2015, Vol.53: 3448-3465.

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